Prediction of ice mass loss induced Earthquakes in Greenland

Key question: Can we predict Earthquakes?

Key result: Earthquakes are caused by a relative deformation of the earth’s crust and are mostly impossible to predict. However, over recent decades Greenland has experienced clusters of Earthquakes likely related to ice mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet. In this project, we compare the deformation gradient of the earth’s crust along the Greenland ice sheet caused by ice mass variability during 1972-2021 with the time, location, and magnitude of all registered seismic events. Our goal is to find a correlation between the elastic deformation of the crust and the timing/location of earthquakes. If we can find such a correlation, we will be able to predict future earthquakes based on projections of future ice mass variability.

Key impact: If successful, this will be the first study to make earthquake projections in time and space. Though our findings will be limited to Greenland they could have an impact on local societies living near the Greenlandic coast. Also, earthquakes can trigger landslides and tsunami. Potentially, a large earthquake (~M 6-7) under the ocean of southeast Greenland could trigger a tsunami large enough to reach coastal Europe. However, tsunami modeling is beyond the scope of this study.