Predicting Tipping Points – bridging predictions from theory, observations and models of an AMOC Collapse

Global warming is happening faster than ever. Current climate models have not been able to predict the rapid climate changes. These models are based on past climate data and are not accurately predicting extreme events like Arctic ice loss, heatwaves, and floods. This project aims to combine physics-based climate models, data analysis, and mathematical techniques to better understand and predict climate tipping points. Tipping points are critical thresholds where small changes can lead to drastic and often irreversible effects on the climate.

A major concern is the potential collapse of the AMOC, a system of ocean currents that affects global climate. Recent studies suggest that it could collapse sooner than previously thought, which would have severe consequences. The project aims to enhance the understanding and prediction of tipping points in climate systems, and seeks to reconcile discrepancies between theoretical predictions, observational data, and climate model predictions.