Doomsday by installments - challenging the dogma of singular climate tipping points in the laboratory

Can we predict with confidence that abrupt and irreversible climate tipping points (TP) are approached? Widely cited recent studies claim to do so, but hinge on key theoretical assumptions that allow for the identification of so-called early-warning signals (EWS). These assumptions could so far not be verified in the real world or climate models. Here we propose this can be done with a lab experiment representing the much-feared TP of a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). If successful, the project will (i) better constrain the relevance of TPs for longterm climate policy making, and (ii) provide new avenues to understand and predict abrupt changes in complex systems encountered in economics, sociology, ecology and biology.